Sunday, October 25, 2015

ISIS vows to attack Israel and releases a threatening new video in Hebrew. Washington Post.

A screencap of the video with the Hebrew speaking member of ISIS. Washington Post/SITE Institute. 

In a new video, spoken in Hebrew, ISIS has issued new threats to Israel. Washington Post. The new video threatens extermination for all the Jews in Israel and across the world. ISIS, also threatened that the attacks Israel have had in the past will pale in comparison to what is coming. The threats come on the heels of fresh violence in Israel. 10 Israelis have been killed in several stabbings and vehicle attacks while dozens of Palestinians have died, all over the Al-Asqa Mosque. ISIS obviously wants to influence the Israeli conflict and wants more support from the Palestinian territories, and from within Israel itself. The speaker on the video spoke perfect Hebrew and was likely from Israel. Israeli authorities believe that dozens of Israeli Muslims have crossed over the border with Syria to fight with various rebel and terrorist groups. 

In a related story, an Israeli Arab citizen used a para-glider to cross the border into Syria. CNN. The 23 year old man flew over the border station in the Golan Heights. It is believed that he intends to join a militant group, though it is unclear which one. The Israeli government may revoke the man's citizenship.

My Comment:
I really don't like talking about Israel. I have an unofficial policy to not cover what happens there, but these two stories seemed very important. The ISIS threat is significant and the para-glider story is just too bizarre not to mention. Still, I am hoping people don't shoot the messenger here. I'm just giving my two cents, not trying to anger everyone on both sides of the Israel issue. Please leave all angry comments somewhere else. Or I might make a multi-paragraph post complaining about your negative comments!  As always, Israel is one of those topics, like circumcision, abortion and grammar that people just go loony when they are mentioned, Besides, I don't take sides in the conflict because I think both sides are stupid. After so many years of war, both sides deserve each other. 

On to the actual stories. The para-glider story is about the weirdest thing I have heard from the entire Syrian conflict. I know people were going to great lengths to join ISIS and al-Qaeda but this is just ridiculous. And it sounds like it caused quite a stir on the Syrian border. From what I have heard, Israel sent quite a few military assets to find this guy, but it sounds like they were unsuccessful. You would have though that someone from one the the multitude of air forces in the area, the guy would have been shot down but it looks like he pulled it off. Such a weird way to go about it though, but I guess with security in Israel as tight as it is he might not have had any other options.

The presence of Muslims in Israel itself, and not just in the occupied territories/Palestine/whatever the term is that won't anger everyone, is one of those things that is easy to forget about. The country has a large and growing Muslim population and the worry is that these people might be ripe for recruitment. Indeed, both of the news stories above shows that it is happening. But is it a real threat for Israel? 

My guess is no. Israel is a fairly good place to live if you are a Muslim. Indeed, if i was going to be reincarnated as a Muslim and had to choose anywhere in the region to live, it would be Israel. The country is stable and generally treats their minority populations better then the Arab states treat their majority population. That isn't saying a whole lot, but unlike many of the other countries in the Middle East. I don't see Israel as a major recruitment center. They just don't have the disillusioned population of Muslims that other countries have. Sure, everyone is all worked up over the Palestinian conflict, but overall, the Muslims there are in pretty good shape. They have little reason to join ISIS or other militant groups. My guess is that ISIS will get about as many recruits from Israel as they will get from the US. Not many.

Of course the occupied territories are something else. They are the home to a large group of fairly angry, financially poor and disillusioned Muslims. You would think that this would mean that ISIS would have a huge opening to take over. But I just don't see it. The Palestinians that want to join a terror group have plenty of local groups to join. Why would they join ISIS when all their friends and family are in Hamas? Why join a group that has global ambitions when you are concerned about the local situation? There is a possibility that people will become disillusioned with Hamas due to it's constant failures, but even if it does happen I don't see ISIS doing much.

After all Israel is a military powerhouse. The only military in the region I trust to give Israel a run for their money is Saudi Arabia, and even then, Israel has the nuclear advantage. They could very easily handle whatever ISIS tries to do in Israel. The country has a very well trained and well armed military and their leadership is both paranoid and willing to use all the weapons at their disposal. In short, ISIS may very well want to attack Israel, but they can't pull it off, at least not without suffering some pretty severe consequences. Sure they could attempt some terror attacks and border raids, but that could draw Israel into the war. And I really don't see that going well for ISIS unless there is some kind of cock-up between Israel and Russia. That shouldn't happen because both sides are reportedly working together to avoid that very thing. In short, there is very little ISIS can accomplish in Israel. I suspect that this video, along with all other threats from ISIS against Israel, is an empty threat with no actual plans attached to them. 

No comments:

Post a Comment