Map showing Russia's activity in Syria. Washington Post.
New satellite images show that Russia is greatly expanding its operations and bases in Syria. Washington Post. IHJ Janes has taken satellite images showing two more bases north of the new airbase in Latakia. One base near the now of Al-Sanobar shows new vehicles and pavement. Images have also shown that the Russians are also moving communications equipment into the area. Russia also has at least 28 jets, including SU-24 "Fencer", SU-25 "Frogfoot" and SU-30's "Flanker-C". In addition to the strike aircraft, Russia has at least 12 helicopter gunships along with an unknown number of T-90 tanks and surface to air missiles. The planes deployed are mostly ground strike aircraft.
My Comment:
Sounds like Russia is greatly expanding its operations in Syria. I am still not sure what their plans there. It looks like they are going to deploy troops there to defend the western coast. All of the planes that are there are ground attackers with only the Flankers being geared to air defense, and even those planes double as strike planes. That along with the tanks and attack helicopters show me that the main airbase is there to support ground troops. My guess is that Russia is going to deploy ground troops to fight in defensive operations.
So will Russia try to attack ISIS and take back the country for Assad? My guess is no. They don't have nearly the forces to do so and I think Putin is smart enough to realize that trying to capture the whole country would result in a quagmire. Instead I think operations will be defensive in nature. They want to keep the west coast and don't really care about anything else.
Russia's main objective is to keep their Tartus Naval base on the West Coast. They need that base because they don't have any others in the Mediterranean. Everything else is secondary. Propping up the Assad regime, fighting ISIS or even creating better relations with Iran. They just want their naval base and they will do everything in their power to keep it.
My guess is that they will deploy troops in an effort to keep the West Coast and ignore everything else. The regime itself will have to fight for Damascus and their eastern enclaves of Deir Ez Zoir and Hasakah. And there is no guarantee that they will be able to defend those cities from ISIS and the rebels. It seems that Russia will be content for the Syrian regime to rule a rump state as opposed to having Syria re-capture the entire country.
So what will Russian operations look like? I think that they will primarily be defensive in nature. Russia will be there to give a backbone to regime forces. Their strike aircraft will mostly be their to support their troops and their regime allies. Who will they be fighting? Probably not ISIS. From what I understand, ISIS has very few front lines where they are fighting the regime, and most of those front lines are in the east of the country, far away from the Russian bases. That means that they will primarily facing the rebels and al-Nusra.
The fear is that somehow, someway Russia and the US or a major ally will have some kind of confrontation. That is certainly possible but I think it is unlikely. Apparently Russia and the United States are coordinating to some extent so that should help things. And if they are working together, the chances of an ally having an incident should be pretty low. There is also the fear that Russia could fight US trained rebels but since there are less then 100 of them and I have heard reports of them betraying America anyways... it shouldn't be a problem.
As for my opinion on Russia sending in troops, more power to them. If they want to get involved in the utter chaos in Syria, then I say let them. Sure they are propping up a terrible regime, and that is a bad thing, but the alternative is worse. I'd much rather have Assad hang on to power if it means the black flags of al-Nusra or ISIS don't fly over the whole country. Probably not a popular opinion, but it is one I hold...
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