Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Peshmerga forces are on the offensive against ISIS in Iraq. Reuters.

Kurdish fighters with an armored vehicle. Reuters. 

Kurdish Peshmerga forces are on the offensive in Northern Iraq, taking back at least 10 villages from ISIS. Reuters. The attack began near Daquq area north of Baghdad. The Kurds rarely venture out from their enclaves in the north, but in this case ISIS was using the area captured as staging zone to attack Peshmerga positions and possibly cut the road between Baghdad and Kirkuk. The Kurds report that they lost 5 fighters and captured an area equivalent to 250 square kilometers. U.S. airstrikes supported the attack. The Kurds took Kirkuk after Iraqi forces abandoned the area and have vowed to keep the city forever. ISIS and the Kurds have had several battles and the terrorist group still controls some of the more western parts of Kurdish territories. 

My Comment:
Sounds like the Kurds are moving out. It's unfortunate that they have little reason to continue the offensive. To date, the Peshmerga fighters have proven to be the most competent military in the region and have had several victories against ISIS. Whenever they fight ISIS, most of the time, they end up with a victory. But like the article said, they have little reason to expand outside of their territory and even if they did, they may face consequences if they do so. 

The Iraqi Kurds are in a fairly unique situation. The Iraqi government is basically letting them do their own thing in Northern Iraq. I am sure that the government would love to take back Kirkuk from the Kurds, but they are so weak right now that they can't do anything about it. If ISIS ever is defeated then there might be conflict between the Kurds and Iraqis over control of the city. That's far in the future though and for now it doesn't matter all that much. But sooner or latter it will come up, and I wonder how they will resolve the ownership question for the city of Kirkuk

What does matter is that the Peshmerga in Iraq are about the only Kurdish group that the Turks tolerate. Unlike the Syrian Kurds, Turkey has a working relationship with the Iraqi Peshmerga. Indeed, it was the Peshmerga that was airlifted into Kobani when ISIS threatened to overwhelm the city. I am sure Turkey hates the idea of a strong Iraqi Kurdish controlled area, but to them it is a more acceptable risk then the Kurds in Syria and Turkey itself. That means they get more support from the west and they generally don't have to worry about the threat of Turkish attacks. 

As for ISIS, it's been quiet lately in Iraq. Since they captured Ramadi, there hasn't been much in the news about them gaining or losing territory. A lot of that has to do with the environment. Iraq is incredibly hot during the summer and it is very hard to fight a war when it is 100 degrees outside. That alone means that there isn't really going to be much in the way of major offensives. My guess is that the temps are a bit lower in the north, which is why this Kurdish offensive was able to happen. Expect the battles to pick up a bit once fall hits and the temperatures drop. 

Even accounting for the summer halt though, there really hasn't been all that much news out of Iraq. ISIS seems to be consolidating their positions and preparing for new battles. My guess is that there will be a new push coming soon, but that new push will be in Syria. Why? As dysfunctional as Iraq is, Syria is in much worse shape. There are more vulnerable targets there and more chances for ISIS to take territory. 

Of course, if ISIS gains strength and territory in Syria it means that they will be able to transfer some of that power over to Iraq. If they are able to recreate the successful attacks that gained them Mosul and Ramadi, then ISIS could threaten Baghdad itself. There is very little in the way between Ramadi and Baghdad. There is Fallujah, which has been contested for most of the war, and then the outskirts of the city itself. I don't think ISIS could capture the capital, but with the way things are going, anything is possible. 

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