Monday, August 31, 2015

1 dead and 100 injured during protests in Ukraine. USA Today.

Protesters and police clash in Kiev. USA Today/AFP.

One person has died and 100 people were injured during a nationalist protest against the Ukrainian government in Kiev. USA Today. The protests are due to the president putting forward an amendment to the constitution that would allow more autonomy for the rebellious cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Protesters, furious over the amendment clashed with police throughout the day. One protester threw a grenade that killed a Ukrainian national guard member and wounded 10 police officers. President Victor Poroshenko condemned the nationalists as "worse then the rebels" and accused them of trying to destroy the country. Far right parties, including the infamous Right Sector, condemned the legislation as a clear capitulation to the rebels. Almost 7000 people have died in the conflict since the war began and sporadic firefights and artillery duels continue to occur. 

My Comment:
First of all I question the timing of this legislation. Why on earth did Ukraine wait until now to try and federalize? It was an obvious solution when the conflict began and could have saved many lives if it had been implemented. But it never happened, largely because of the fear that the ultra-nationalists would not like it and could rebel over it. 

It appears that is going to happen anyways, but without the possible benefit of the rebels being placated by this move. It is far too late for the rebels to accept a federal solution. For one thing they are in a very good position militarily. Yes, they have ceased offensive operations for the most part but the Ukraine government is in no position to drive them out. Simply put, the rebels are sitting pretty right now. Why would they give up? The have no reason to care about this deal because they realize that the most likely end game for this war is independence or annexation by Russia for the entire Donbass region. A few token gestures from the government in Kiev isn't going to change that. 

And even though I think the ultra-nationalists have a point here, they aren't helping things. The last thing Ukraine needs is either a second rebellion or a change of government. The country is already on the brink of collapse and either of those things could completely push them over the edge. And, obviously, throwing a grenade at the police isn't the way to get your point across. Violence won't accomplish their goals unless they really are ready to out and out rebel against the government. 

I've posted before about these far-right groups in Ukraine and I think the possibility of a second rebellion is growing more possible by the day. These were the people that started the war in the first place, with their bigoted laws against Russian speakers that sparked the rebellion after the revolution. They are upset that the government seems weak against the rebels and hate Russia with a passion. They are unlikely to accept any peace deals and are going to be very resistant to any attempts to reign in their power. 

And, of course, they are basically Nazis. I say that as someone who thinks that far-right parties get unfairly tarred with that label. Groups like the Azov Battalion are pretty openly national socialist and the Right Sector party isn't that far behind them. Their actions and beliefs go far beyond normal nationalism and get into some pretty horrifying bigotry against the Russians. Not all of the far right in Ukraine think that way and not all members of these parties are as bad as the Nazis but enough of them are to make me worried about what would happen if they would gain power. 

I also need to point out that the United States is still training militias in Ukraine. It never made any sense to me because to this day I contend that the United States had no interest whatsoever in the internal politics of Ukraine. That being said the troops are there and they could be training far right individuals. From what I understand the vetting process is pretty basic and they really don't know who they are training. This could be one of those things that end up hurting us in the long term because we didn't really think about what we were doing. 

I really hope the next president, whoever that may be, can handle Ukraine and Russia better then the current administration has. Though I think the relationship between Russia and the Untied States has declined to the point where it will be difficult to fix things, at the very least I hope we have a president that is willing to work with Putin. We may not see eye to eye on everything, but I see no reason to antagonize Putin over Ukraine. In short, Ukraine isn't the hill I want US/Russian relations to die on. 

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