Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Taliban leader Mullah Omar reported dead in Afghanistan. Wall Street Journal.

One of the only known photographs of Mullah Omar in 1996. WSJ/AFP/Getty.

Taliban leader Mullah Omar is reported to be dead in Afghanistan, according to Afghan officials and sources close to the Taliban. Wall Street Journal. His death comes as the Taliban and the Afghan government meet to try and come to a peace deal. It is unclear how he died, or even if the reports are accurate. Voice of America is reporting that the Taliban has denied his death. The reports claiming his death claim that he has been dead for quite some time, with two years being the most quoted figure. Mullah Omar hasn't been seen in public since 2001 and has been rumored to have died many times in the past. With Omar apparently dead, questions about who will lead the Taliban have arisen. The movement is threatening to split over the peace talks to end the 14 year old war. The Taliban have never had a leadership change in their history. 

My Comment:
If the reports are true then good riddance. Mullah Omar is an example of everything wrong with the Islamic world right now. His movement treats women like garbage, non-Muslims like they are not human and Afghanistan like it was still in the 12th century. As the leader of the Taliban, he was an accessory to 9/11 and he is responsible for the deaths of many American servicemen. In short, I won't be mourning him. The world is a better place without Mullah Omar. 

I have to say though, I am skeptical of the claims that he has died. Mullah Omar has been a ghost for more then a decade. At this point, even if he is dead, how would we know? Without a body or a picture of his corpse, this could just be disinformation. Omar must have felt like he was a gigantic target, and what better way to get the Americans off his back then by faking his death? And that is assuming that he was ever still alive in the first place. The last time anyone saw him in public was in 2001. He also doesn't allow himself to be photographed. For all we know he died back in the first stages of the war.

If he is dead, then it begs the question of what happens next in Afghanistan, and even Pakistan. Mullah Omar was the spiritual leader of not only the Taliban, but for many other militant groups operating in the area as well. With him dead there is sure to be a power vacuum. A major one, that could further destabilize the region. 

Will it effect the peace talks? It depends. If he really has been dead for two years then someone must have taken over for him, and there shouldn't be any further issues. If he just recently died though, the situation may be more chaotic. The Taliban was threatening to split before the death of Mullah Omar over the peace talks. Depending on what side of the issue Omar was on, it may embolden one side or the other. My guess is that Omar was not on the side of the hard liners that want to continue the war, so if anyone is empowered over this, it might be them.  

The bigger fear is that ISIS might be the ones to fill the power vacuum. They have forces operating in Afghanistan and are starting to make gains there. If there is any group worse in the entire world then the Taliban, it is ISIS, and them gaining power in Afghanistan is not something I want to see. But there is a real chance that they will pick up the militants that are frustrated with the peace process and want to continue to fight. After all, the Taliban seems to be weaker then ever with the loss of their leader, and ISIS has had a major string of successes lately. People want to be on a winning team, and right now the team that is winning the most is ISIS. Mullah Omar's death might be all many militants need to push them over the edge to join ISIS. 

It is very possible that the two way fight against the Taliban and the Afghan government could turn into a three way brawl between both parties and the Islamic State. Of those options, the Afghan government is the only acceptable one. I wonder if the Taliban spitting off into two factions could be a help to the Afghan government. After all, if ISIS/hardcore Taliban get into a war with the peace faction of Taliban, they might just weaken each other enough to let the Afghan government win. That's not a very likely scenario considering how badly the Afghan government has been getting pushed around lately though. They are taking unsustainable casualties, so even if the Taliban splits, they won't be in a great position. 

Finally, Mullah Omar's death wraps up another chapter in America's War on Terror. Long after Osama Bin Laden has died and the terrorist network he led has largely been dismantled, the last major figure operating during the first part of the war has died. The only man left now is Ayman al Zawahiri, and his days are probably numbered as well. And even if he does live, Al-Qaeda is just a shadow of its former self. Once he dies, we can say that almost everyone involved in the 9/11 attacks will have been killed or captured. What should have been a great victory for us is tainted by the fact that the ISIS phoenix has risen from the ashes of al-Qaeda and may rise from what remains of the Taliban as well... 

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