French Interior Minster Bernard Cazeneuve. The Guardian/AFP/Getty
France has foiled a terror plot targeting military bases and have arrested four suspects. The Guardian. The arrests happened on Monday and targets four men between the ages of 16 and 23. Their plan was to attack a military base and decapitate a high ranking officer and film the death on camera. The plan unraveled after their activities were discovered online. No link has been found between the suspects and other recent Jihadi activities in France. France claims that similar plots are broken up "every week" and over 300 people have been arrested since 2012 for Jihadi activities.
My Comment:
It doesn't sound like this attack was going to happen anytime soon, but it is still good that the attack was broken up. I also don't have a clue how it was supposed to work. After all, breaking into a military base isn't easy, and getting close to a commanding officer would even be harder. I don't know what the security situation is at French bases, but I assume they have some armed guards.
On the other hand, in the United States there have been several attacks committed at U.S. military bases that resulted in multiple deaths. One of these, the attack on Fort Hood, by Nidal Hasan, was related to radical Islam, but another, the Washington Navy Yard shooting, was just a lone nut. But it does show how even military installations can be vulnerable to terrorist attacks. Contrary to popular perceptions, very few people at military bases are actually armed. I'd assume that is just as true in France as it is in America. Still, military bases, while not quite as difficult to attack as one might think, are still harder targets then other potential locations for terrorist attacks.
France has been a huge target for terrorism for quite some time. They have had more then a few major terror attacks, the most notable being the Charlie Hebdo massacre. Why? Well for one thing they have been a huge supporter of the United States in the War on Terror. Yes, they sat out the Iraq War but they were a major ally in Afghanistan and have joined the fight against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Their foreign policy is fairly unpopular among radical Islamists for obvious reasons.
France also has a large, poorly integrated and easily radicalized Muslim population. The Muslims in France aren't treated all that well, but even if they were, they are still at risk of being radicalized. Many Muslims in France have left to fight in Syria, Iraq or elsewhere in the Middle East. Like the Charlie Hebdo killers, it is feared that they will come back at commit terror attacks.
France is also at a higher risk for lone wolf terror attacks. Just like the recent attack where a man was decapitated, it is possible for people to commit terror attacks in France with little to no help from terrorist organizations. That's true for any country, but with France's large population of poorly integrated Muslims, it's a bigger threat.
As for the next big terror attack, it's a good bet that it is going to be in Europe. France is certainly a leading candidate, but it could also be the United Kingdom as well. They have all the problems with poorly integrated Muslims as France has, but in my perception their radicals are even worse then the ones in France.
The good news is that the vast majority of these attacks seem to fall apart before they can happen, or fail. If France really is breaking up these threats every week, then they are doing a great job at disrupting these attacks before then happen. But even the attacks that have happened lately have largely failed, or only killed one or two people besides the attackers. That's good news because terrorism doesn't work without spectacular attacks.
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