Tuesday, May 12, 2015

What were the costs of the Ukraine conflict for Russia in terms of money and lives? Yahoo/Reuters.

A pro Russian rebel near Debaltseve. Yahoo/Reuters. 

Russian support of the Ukrainian counter-revolution has been extremely costly in terms of both money and lives. Yahoo/Reuters. According to a new report by slain Putin critic Boris Nemtsov, Russia has spend almost 53 billion rubles (roughly $1 billion) on the conflict. At least 220 Russian soldiers had died in the conflict as well. 150 of those soldiers were killed in a battle near Ilovaisk while 70 more died in the critical battle for Debaltseve. Though the relatives of the dead soldiers were paid 3 million rubles to keep quit about the deaths, many asked Nemstov for help exposing the true costs of the war. Nemstov was assassinated under mysterious circumstances in February. 

My Comment:
It's important to note that a report released by a opposition group shouldn't just be accepted. They have every reason to lie or exaggerate to make Putin look bad, just like he has every reason to lie to make himself look good. I don't think either side is credible, so unless an independent source confirms this report or Russia admits to it, take it with a grain of salt, especially the numbers. Just don't trust the Russians to be truthful either.  

I do think that there is probably some truth to the report though. Its clear that Russia has invested money into the Ukraine conflict. $1 billion dollars doesn't sound to high for a major military intervention that also includes humanitarian support and non-combat aid. If anything it seems a bit low, but it is a plausible number. Military conflicts are expensive under any circumstances, even if you are mostly staying out of the fighting. 

Of course, not all of the Russians stayed out of the fighting. Though I have no idea if the numbers quoted in the report were correct, I do know that the battles for Ilovaisk and Debatseve were brutal, with many casualties on both sides. It makes perfect sense that the Russians would have taken casualties if they were involved in those battles. My guess is that the numbers were probably higher then the Nemstov report claims. After all, if the accusations of money for silence are true, it makes sense that a lot of people would not talk about it. And there are no official figures being released by the government.

Which, as an aside, doesn't make much sense to me. After all, if these soldiers are "volunteers", shouldn't they be given a hero's funeral at home? I'm not saying I agree with the decision to send them there in the first place, but don't the Russians think their sacrifices should be honored? I know seeing people come home in body bags doesn't play well on the news, but if your whole justification for sending them there in the first place is because they are heroic soldiers volunteering for a good cause, shouldn't they be celebrated/mourned instead of covered up?  

I'm just trying to think of what would happen if the United States was sending hundreds of "volunteers" to fight in a foreign country. I mean in some ways that is already happening in the battle against ISIS in Syria. But what if that was on a larger scale? If a bunch of them got killed wouldn't we treat them the same way we treat our soldiers, with respect and admiration? Or would it get covered up? Maybe there is just something I am missing here. Perhaps it is the fact that the Russians are either being forced to go, or are essentially mercenaries. Or maybe the Russians don't quite worship soldiers like we do here in the United States. 

Finally, I know that Nemstov was assassinated back in February. Many people thought it was to keep this report from being released. I don't buy it. The main reason is that the report was indeed released, so if it was all a plot to keep it from reaching the public it failed utterly. I just don't see the report being worth killing people over. None of this is exactly shocking to me. Everyone knew that Russia was sending troops to fight and spending a ton of money in Ukraine. It's not exactly a shocking secret. 

 I'm still sticking with my original guess as to why Nemstov got killed. To recap that post, I think it is   likely that the leader of Chechnya, Ramzam Kadroyv, ordered the hit. He was furious with Nemstov for defending the Charlie Hebdo cartoons and he knew at least one of the assassins personally. Back then I thought he was a puppet of Putin, but it seems like he has gone off the rails a bit. I can't prove that he did it, but it makes sense to me. Plus nothing in this report seems so damaging to Putin that he would order a hit over it. I could be wrong though, but I'm guessing that it really was over the Charlie Hebdo cartoons.   

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