Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Senegal will deploy 2,100 soldiers to Saudi Arabia to join the war against the Houthi rebels. Yahoo/AFP

Yemeni rebels in Aden. Yahoo/AFP.

Senegal is set to deploy 2,100 soldiers to Saudi Arabia to join the countries war against Iranian backed Houthi rebels. Yahoo/AFP. It is unclear when the troops will be deployed. The Saudis asked Senegal to join the coalition in April. Saudi Arabia has led the war against the Iranian back Houthi rebels since the president of Yemen was forced to flee. An extended air campaign has been ongoing since the end of March. Senegal has a long history of deploying troops to peacekeeping missions and participated in the first Gulf War. 

My Comment:
Sounds like even more countries are joining Saudi Arabia's coalition. From what I understand Egypt has joined the coalition as well. I've heard rumors about Pakistan joining the war too, but I think that fell apart. These 2100 troops won't have all that much effect in the upcoming battle, but they are better then nothing. 

It seems clear that a major war is coming in Yemen. Between the naval blockade that turned back an Iranian convoy to the various border skirmishes on the Saudi Arabia/Yemen border, it looks like the war in Yemen is heating up. It seems obvious that a major invasion is on the way. I even saw a report that the Saudis have a few scouts deployed in Yemen already. Unfortunately, I didn't save the link and I haven't been able to find it again.

So what would a war in Yemen look like? I still think it will be a war on two fronts. I am expecting an amphibious invasion to shore up the defenses in Aden. At the same time, Saudi and coalition forces will strike over the border and attack the Houthi strongholds in the north. A two front war like this would be very difficult for the Houthis to survive. And they would have a very difficult time countering the Saudis heavy armor and air superiority. 

In addition, the naval blockade is cutting off the Houthis from their supplies of weapons and ammunition. Their sponsor, Iran, can't send any supplies in at all. They have tired and failed a couple of times. First their naval convoy was turned away by the threat of American intervention. Then, the Iranians tried to send in an airplane and the Saudis destroyed the airfield. In short, Iran can't do much to help the Houthis without risking a wider war. 

The X-factor here is the Iranians. This is essentially a proxy war between the Iranians and Saudi Arabia, so it isn't outside the realm of possibility that they could get involved into a shooting war over Yemen. I think they realize that this would be a bad idea for everyone involved, but bad things can happen without anyone really meaning for it to happen. Tensions are so high that any kind of mistake, such as an air collision or a naval engagement, could spiral out into an actual war.

If the situation spirals into a real war between Iran and Saudi Arabia it will have a devastating effect on the international economy. The oil industry would be disrupted and the massive amount of shipping that goes through the area would be damaged as well. No good will come from this.  

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