Thursday, May 21, 2015

Palmyra falls to ISIS, thousands of years of history at risk. Yahoo/Reuters.

A Syrian soldier in Palmyra before the fall. Yahoo/Reuters. 

ISIS has taken both the modern city of Palmyra and the ruins of the ancient city of the same name in its offensive in Syria. Yahoo/Reuters. The victory comes on the heels of the successful capture of the Iraqi city of Ramadi and the Libyan city of Sirte. ISIS now controls half of Syria. ISIS has long treated archaeological sites like Palmyra as sources of income at best, and as affronts to God at worst. The fear is that ISIS will destroy the ancient ruins in the city, erasing thousands of years of history. During the battle, Syrian troops evacuated civilians before abandoning the city. The offensive is putting massive pressure on the Syrian government. 

My Comment:
So far there hasn't been any reported damage to the ruins in Palmyra but I doubt that will last. ISIS considers ruins, tombs and gravestones to be blasphemous, and they have destroyed so much history in Iraq and Syria already. It seems clear what will happen as soon as ISIS is settled in and can turn their attention away from winning the battle. At best the ruins will be chopped up and sold to the highest bidder on the black market. At worst they will be destroyed completely.

And that is what is truly disgusting about this is that it isn't just Syrian culture on the line. Palmyra is 4000 years old and is an important part of history. It's mentioned in the bible, it has Greek and Roman ruins and was a crucial piece of the puzzle for the ancient silk road trade caravans. That's not Syrian culture. That's my culture ISIS is destroying. I'm partially ethnically Greek and my ancestors either lived under Roman rule or were the Romans. Destroying these sites is destroying my heritage, not to mention the heritage of millions of others. 

Nothing will be done to save these ruins either. When it came down to it, Syria chose to save the lives of their soldiers and the civilians in  Tadmur (the local name for the city). Can you really blame them for that? The Syrian regime is on the verge of defeat and the groups that are looking like they are going to win, al-Nusra and ISIS, are evil incarnate. And they hate Alawties, Shiite Muslims, Druse and Christians. For them it was an easy choice to sacrifice this city to protect the lives of those people. 

And that is how desperate the war against ISIS has gotten. For awhile it seemed like they were on the verge of defeat themselves. But then Ramadi fell. And Sirte in Lyiba. And now Palmyra. The question is now will they be stopped before they reach Baghdad, Damascus and Tripoli? And if they aren't, how far will they go?  

It's not even that ISIS is strong. It is because their enemies are weak. I've written at length how bad the Iraqi army was. They were a weak force before the battle of Mosul. After the defeat there, they essentially ceased to exist. The defenders of Ramadi were the best troops Iraq had, which isn't saying much. In the end they dropped their weapons, abandoned their vehicles and fled with their tails behind their legs. If those were their best troops and they were routed, who will defend Baghdad? The Shiite militias, that are only slightly better then ISIS? The Kurds, who have no interest in the non-Kurdish parts of Iraq? 

And the Syrian regime is on the verge of a total collapse. Taking Palmyra gives ISIS a base to stage attacks on the West Coast of Syria. With Al-Nusra and the "Army of Conquest" alliance pushing hard in the northwest, Bashar Al-Assad is running out of options. Four years of conflict have bleed the Syrian regime dry. They won't get any help either, other then a few Hezbollah fighters and Russian arms shipments. 

So what happens next? Unless something major happens on the ground, it seems clear that ISIS is going to keep taking territory. Airstrikes and training won't win the war. Indeed, it seems that providing arms and training to the Iraqis is a complete waste of time and resources if they just flee from combat leaving all their shinny new weapons behind. What is needed are fresh, professional, well trained troops to fight on the ground. And no nation on earth is willing to provide those troops. 

And it is just amazing to me how quickly things changed in the Middle East. Just a few years, Syria and Libya were at peace, Iraq was starting to recover and tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran were comparatively low. Now look at it. A apocalyptic death cult has conquered half of both Iraq and Syria, and has outposts of territory across the world. And that isn't hyperbole on my part. They  literally want to bring about the Apocalypse. It's their religion. 

The world is on fire right now. I won't say that things couldn't be worse, because I know it isn't true. But it just seems impossible that the world will get any better. Not without some serious sacrifices made by countries that have no further interest in stabilizing the Middle East... 

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