Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Saudis "end" air campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen. Yahoo/Reuters.

A Saudi airstrike near Sanaa, Yemen. Yahoo/Reuters.

Saudi Arabia have ended their air campaign against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Yahoo/Reuters. Saudi Arabia is now trying to find a diplomatic solution. Iran welcomed the cease fire. Saudi Arabia claimed the air campaign had greatly reduced the Houthi's ability to fight and destroyed most of their heavy weapons. Though the focus of the Saudis has shifted, their may still be military action. Saudi Arabia may still deploy their elite National Guard to join their campaign. 

My Comment:
Surprising move by the Saudis. I figured their air campaign would have lasted longer then it did. The airstrikes must have had a larger effect on the Houthis then I thought. Their offensive must have stalled out for the Saudis to stop the campaign. My guess is that they no longer advancing and may actually be in retreat. With the Saudis claiming to have destroyed the rebels heavy weapons, they may very well be withdrawing. 

I don't know if any kind of diplomatic solution will be found. The rebels still control a large part of Yemen and haven't been pushed out of the capital yet. They still have ground forces and the Yemeni government is still in a weak position. They also still have the support of Iran. Though they are cut off from supplies from Iran, the country is still supporting them in other ways. I'm not sure what kind of deal could even be made.

My guess is that this is just a hiatus in the battle and not the end. The fact that the Saudis are openly talking about deploying their best fighters in Yemen means that they are still in this fight. A ground invasion would seriously up the stakes in the conflict. The Egyptians may be involved in any attack in Yemen as well and who knows how the Iranians would respond to that. 

As for the Iranians, I wonder if this move will cause them to pull back their convoy of ships. With the Saudis blockading the coast and a U.S. carrier group in the area there was little chance of them delivering their cargo in the first place. Now that the air campaign is supposedly over, they may no longer have a reason to do so. 


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