Monday, March 16, 2015

Vladimir Putin was willing to put his nuclear forces on alert over Crimea. Yahoo/AFP

Crimeans celebrate after the vote to join Russia. Yahoo/AFP

In a new documentary released in Russia, President Vladimir Putin admitted to being prepared to put his nuclear forces on alert over the Crimean crisis. Yahoo/AFP. Putin was deeply involved in the crisis and warned the United States and other countries how important Crimea was to Russia. Putin was unsure if the West was willing to wage war over Crimea so he was prepared to put his nuclear forces on alert. The documentary, called Homeward Bound, had other revelations as well. Vladimir Putin claimed that he saved former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych from an assassination attempt. He also detained the military operation to annex Crimea. Special forces, marines and paratroopers were all deployed to isolate Ukrainian troops and a high tech missile system, the Bastion coastal defense missiles, were deployed to deter the U.S. Navy. Putin placed the blame for the situation squarely on the shoulders of Ukraine's "nationalists" with "extreme beliefs". Putin has been out of the public eye for the last ten days before appearing on television this morning. 

My Comment:
This documentary is obvious Russian propaganda, so we should take everything it says with a grain of salt. Still, I tend to belief most of what was said in this article. Crimea has always been an important part of Russia and I am sure that Putin felt like this was a defensive action. Though Crimea belonged to Ukraine, it was for all intents and purposes still Russian, with most of the people there speaking the language. I am not at all surprised that Putin was willing to go to war to protect it/take it. The Western leaders were not, and for very good reason. In the long run, whatever negative consequences for Russia annexing Crimea would not outweigh the consequences of a war that could go nuclear. Even a conventional conflict would have been devastating

Some of the report was just confirming things I knew already. For example Russia was deeply involved in the annexation of Crimea from the start. This was common knowledge even at the time, but it is new that Russia is admitting it so readily. The fact that Putin deployed Bastion missiles is news to me though. And it is very big news because those missiles would have been a huge threat to the U.S. Navy and other allies in the area. Again, this is more evidence that Russia really wanted to take and keep Crimea. 

I also think that Putin is right about the nature of the Ukrainian revolution. Some of the protesters were very, very far to the right. So far to the right that the left-right dynamic breaks down and you start to get into outright fascism. Indeed, some of the Ukrainian militias are Nazis in all but name. They aren't a majority and it would be wrong to call the whole revolution fascist, but there are definitely some fascist elements to the revolution. 

As far as Vladimir Putin himself, it has been amusing to read all the various conspiracy theories about his brief media absence. Social media and various message boards were working themselves into a frenzy about his status. Here are some of the better theories I heard:
-Putin was of the radar because he had a secret love child with his mistress
-The military was in the middle of a coup and had disposed Putin
-Putin was dead
-Putin was alive and plotting World War III and would announce that he was pushing the button to launch the nukes this morning (thankfully that one didn't come true!)
-Putin had gone on a week long bender (even the mainstream media implied this one!)

This morning I heard a new one:
-Putin died and the guy that was on TV was his body double replacement.

My guess is that he was just sick with the flu or something. Not as exciting as the other options, but much more realistic! 

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