Friday, March 27, 2015

Saudi Arabia and Egypt are planning on attacking Yemen. Yahoo/AP

A Houthi rebel looking for survivors in a bombed out building near Sanaa, Yemen. Yahoo/AP

After airstrikes, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are preparing to escalate the war in Yemen by sending in ground troops. Yahoo/AP. Iran backs the Houthi rebel faction and warned Saudi Arabia that they were displeased by the airstrikes. The Saudis back the government of Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who was forced to flee the southern port city of Aden after the rebels attacked. Hadi is now in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia deployed at least 100 fighter planes and 150,000 troops are at the border awaiting orders. In addition to Saudi Arabia, jets from Egypt, Sudan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates participated in airstrikes. It is unclear how many forces from the other countries were involved, though it is known that Egypt has significant forces at sea on board troop transports. When the attack comes it will be a combined attack from both the land and from amphibious landings from both the Red and Arabian seas. The war will put Washington in a precarious position because their allies in the gulf may end up torpedoing any nuclear deal with Iran. 

My Comment:
The Middle East is falling apart rapidly to say the least. I mentioned that the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia could spin out of control, but I did not think it would go this fast. This sounds like a massive operation, and the Saudis and Egyptians are very serious about this attack. If the numbers aren't inflated it sounds like the combined forces of the two countries is around 200,000 troops. That's about what the United States deployed during the 2003 invasion of Iraq (the actual invasion force was larger due to other allies). They will also have allies on the ground and may get more help from other members of their coalition. I don't know how many troops the Houthis have but Wikipedia said they had 100,000 fighters in 2011. 

From what I understand there is going to be a sustained air attack on the Houthi forces. Saudi Arabia has already destroyed the air force of the rebellion, and are almost certainly targeting heavy armor and supply depots. Once they have destroyed a good portion of those targets the ground invasion will begin. The Saudis will attack from the north with heavy forces while the Egyptians land their forces in the south. This should trap the Houthis and split their forces. It's a good plan and it may very well work. 

The question is what is Iran going to do about it? They are backing the Houthi rebels and they want to be the dominate force in the region. This is a huge slap in the face for them and may lead them to do something stupid. There is a small chance that Iran may attack Saudi Arabia and her allies. If that happens then this minor war will spiral out of control. I don't think Iran wants to risk an all out war right now though. They are so close to a nuclear deal with the Obama administration. I have stopped trying to predict what Obama will do but he would pretty much have to abandon any deal if the Iranians attacked our allies in the region. That's the theory at least.

As for the United States, Obama must be frustrated right now. He desperately wants a nuclear deal as well to try and salvage something from his presidency. Though our relations with our Arab allies are strained, we still like them better then Iran. From what I have heard we are supporting the Saudis with intelligence but nothing more then that. Of course all of our allies in the region are armed with American technology and weapons. It will be interesting to see what they can do with them.

The article goes into detail about how bizarre this entire situation is. Saudi Arabia is our traditional ally in the region and they are fighting Iranian proxies in Yemen, who are fighting Al-Qaeda as well. We are opposed to Iran but we are also trying to get a nuclear deal with them and they are our de-facto allies in Iraq against ISIS, who are also fighting against the Arab States. Remember the old saying "What if they through a war an nobody came?". Well this is the war where everyone came. 

And just as a reminder, this is a religious war between Sunni and Shiite. The actual battlefield in Yemen is just one part of it. All across the Muslim world the two branches of Islam are in open warfare with each other. I am not sure what the long term implications of that are, other then chaos and destruction, but I do know that with both sides fighting each other they will give more opportunities for groups like ISIS, AQAP, Al-Nusra and all the other various terror groups to grow, take territory and attack their enemies, both in the region and outside of it. No good will come of this... 

No comments:

Post a Comment