An Ukrainian tank near Debaltseve. Yahoo/AP
Heavy fighting continues in Ukraine ahead of weekend cease fire. Yahoo/AP. Rebel fighters are pushing hard to take the railway hub and strategic city of Debaltseve. European leaders, including Vladimir Putin and Angela Merkel, came to an agreement on Thursday with a new plan to end the fighting. The agreement had little effect on the ground as rebels took the village of Lohvynove, which lies on the last highway out of Debaltseve. With the village taken, thousands of Ukrainian troops and civilians could be cut off. Ukraine accuses Russia of having troops fighting in the battle, which Russia denies. In the Mariupol region, Ukrainian militias have taken back a series of villages, in an attempt to preemptively stop an offensive in the area. By the terms of the cease fire, both sides are to pull their heavy weapons away from the front lines. Other questions, such as autonomy for the Donbass region, have yet to be answered.
My Comment:
I wasn't expecting a cease fire at all. After all the rebels are about to close off the Debaltseve pocket and trap thousands of Ukrainian troops. They aren't at the verge of winning the war, but to let such a huge potential victory go to waste seems unlikely. I'm guessing if Debatlseve really is cut off one of two things will happen. First the troops could surrender to the rebels and then be turned into bargaining pieces for negotiation. That seems a bit unlikely since the rebel hold on the area is not that strong yet. The second option is more likely. The trapped troops try and break out of the pocket, cease fire be damned. In the long term they may fail or succeed, but the major outcome of the battle may be an end to the cease fire. The third option is that Ukraine isn't trapped at all. It's very possible that the rebels will fail in completely cutting off the Debaltseve pocket, allowing the Ukrainian forces to retreat, or even hold their positions.
As for the hopes for peace, I just don't see it happening yet. Yes everyone else in Europe wants the war to end, including Vladimir Putin, but the rebels do not. They are in a strong position and are close to getting everything they want. Unless there is some kind of secret negotiation between the rebels and Ukraine where they made some major concessions, I don't see the war ending anytime soon. It is important to remember that Putin's "control" over the rebels isn't nearly as strong as the West likes to believe. Yes, he does have considerable influence, but their loyalty is not with him. They have defied him before, and I wouldn't be too surprised if they throw a wrench into the peace process.
As for Ukraine itself, they really need to see the writing on the wall here. For them, the peace process must work out because if it doesn't they might lose everything. Their economy has collapsed and their money has lost most of its value. They are also having a hell of a time trying to recruit new soldiers, to the point that they arresting deserters are thinking of drafting women up as well. To be completely frank, Ukraine cannot win without major outside intervention. That isn't going to happen. Even if the west sends arms, they still have to be able to recruit soldiers and pay them their salaries. They are already having problems doing that now, so if the war continues at the current level of fighting Ukraine's government will either fall or let the rebels get what they want. In my humble opinion they have already lost this war. Continuing it will have no purpose except getting people killed.
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