Monday, January 5, 2015

Suicide attack on Saudi Arabian border post. Was it ISIS?. BBC

The attack occurred near Judayyidat Arar. BBC. 

Two men have been killed and a third wounded in a suicide bombing attack on the Saudi Arabia/Iraq border. BBC. The attack occurred near the border town of Judayyidat Arar, near the ISIS controlled Anbar province. Border guards managed to kill one of the attackers before the second one detonated his explosive vest. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack but it seems likely that it was ISIS. Saudi Arabia has joined the coalition against ISIS and has conducted airstrikes against their forces in Syria. One of the people killed in the attack appears to be a high ranking officer. Local media claims that a General, Oudah al-Belawi, was killed. Saudi Arabia has deployed thousands of troops to the border with Iraq but until now attacks have consisted of limited mortar strikes from ISIS controlled territories. 

My Comment:
This is a fairly major development. I have very little doubt that this is an ISIS attack. There aren't any other terror groups in the immediate region. ISIS dominates Anbar province and they are the only game in town, so to speak. If it is true that a General was killed then this is a huge escalation for Saudi Arabia. Losing a high ranking officer in this kind of an attack demands a response. I'm guessing that the response will come in the form of more airstrikes, and the expansion of the air war into Iraq.

As for ISIS, I'm not really seeing how this attack makes sense, unless it was an accident. I doubt it was, but it seems like this will cost them more then they gain. Sure this is a propaganda victory, but the Saudis are a major force in the region. They have a strong military and are already involved in the conflict. Pushing them into the conflict further seems to be a bad idea in terms of their long term survival. Then again, this is a group that welcomed U.S. involvement in the war so they could try and kill more Americans. Logic isn't their strong suit. 

Again, this war is spiraling out from the borders of Iraq and Syria. I doubt ISIS has the forces to do an Iraq style invasion of Saudi Arabia, but more suicide attacks and skirmishes are possible. This war is no longer contained to Iraq and Syria. It is a regional war ranging as far away as Libya. And that's not even counting all the various lone wolf nutjobs and affiliated terror organizations. The war on radical Islam is a global one and this newest attack shows that not even the larger powers in the Middle East are immune to it. 

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