A rebel checkpoint near Donetsk. Yahoo/AFP
Fighting has broken out in the contested city of Mariupol in Ukraine. Yahoo/AFP. At least 15 people were killed in the city, along with 46 people wounded in a Grad rocket attack in a residential area. Houses and cars were destroyed and cell phone service was interrupted by the attack. Mariupol is a city of 500,000 people that has economic and strategic importance. Taking it would give the rebels a link to the annexed Crimea peninsula. Last summer the rebels launched an attack on the city that was defeated, but at a high cost in terms of men and equipment for Ukraine. The battle was so feirce that it helped Ukraine come to a cease fire. That cease fire is now dead with the leader of the Donetsk rebellion ripping up the agreement.
My Comment:
My guess is that this attack was probably just a case of bad aim since attacking a residential area has no strategic or tactical advantage. Mistakes happen in war and I am guessing this is one of them. The more important thing is that the rebels are on the offensive again. In winter. It is never a good idea to go to war in the winter in Ukraine. It just adds to the misery of everyone involved. I don't think it helps or hinders one side more then the other, but it will add to the suffering for all the civilians caught in the middle. If your house gets shelled in the summer and you lose power, it is bad but at least you won't freeze to death.
Can the rebels take the capitol? They are getting Russian help so that gives them a bit more backbone. And the Russians want Mariupol. It links them to Crimea and helps them control the region. It is also a producer and exporter of coal and steel so lets not rule out good ol' fashioned greed for the reason for this offensive. And that's why Ukraine will fight for the city as well.
As for the peace agreement ending, I am not too surprised. The time for peace and reconciliation was long gone. Too much blood has been spilled for this to end with a simple cease fire. The whole situation could have been avoided last year if the new Ukrainian government had just backed down with their anti-Russian laws. Once they did that the gloves were off and war was inevitable. I'm not seeing this war ending with anything other then an independent/annexed Donetsk and Luhansk or the utter destruction of the rebel groups. Considering the weakness of Ukraine and the fact that Russia is backing the rebels I am betting the first option is much more likely then the second.
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