Thursday, January 29, 2015

Is China selling weapons to Nigeria for the fight against Boko Haram? War is Boring.

A Chinese CH-3 drone. War is Boring/Chinese Military Review.

A possible armed Chinese drone has been found in Nigeria raising questions about China's involvement in the conflict there. War is Boring. The drone was found in Northeast Nigeria, near the area that Boko Haram is active in. Pictures of the crashed drone closely match the Chinese CH-3 drone and were armed with two missiles. Nigeria has been desperate to acquire new aircraft and weapons to fight Boko Haram but have not had much luck. An attempt to buy Cobra helicopter gunships from Israel failed due to U.S. resistance over human rights concerns. With the U.S. and its allies not helping it looks like Nigeria has turned to China for help. China has developed drones for export and have been looking for customers. However, it is unknown if the drone is actually from China. 

My Comment:
I'm guessing that this was a Chinese drone. Nigeria doesn't have the expertise to make drones and I doubt any Western government sold them one. China is the logical choice. Though I would love to see Boko Haram attacked with drones, the sale of drones to Nigeria's government is somewhat disturbing. The days of the U.S. having a monopoly on drone technology are long over. If a country as dysfunctional as Nigeria can operate drones then almost any country can. Pandroa's box for this technology has been opened and it is only a matter of time before someone uses drones on the United States or our interests.

As for China, they are highly involved in Africa. To the point where it is starting to look like some kind of "soft" colonialism. China, as always, is desperate for resources and is trying to secure allies in the region. They have thousands of workers in Africa and are investing heavily in the region. This is a concern and it is an issue that is pretty much completely ignored in American media. Here's a good article from the Economist about the issue.

Regarding Boko Haram, if Nigeria does have drones it might help a little bit, but it won't lead to their defeat alone. Drones are useful for intelligence gathering and precision strikes. They can have an impact on your enemy if you target leadership. But the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan shows the limitations of drones. Civilian casualties due to bad intelligence or mistakes can turn civilians against you and even successful drone strikes can't break up enemy attacks. The Cobra helicopters would have been a better choice but they wouldn't fill the recon role that drones do. To summarize, drones might help Nigeria but they can't win the war all by themselves. 

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