Sunday, November 9, 2014

Fighting flares up in Ukraine. Donetsk under heavy shelling. Yahoo/Reuters

Shelling targets the airport in Donetsk. Yahoo/Reuters

The two month old cease fire in Ukraine seems all but dead as new shelling in the rebel stronghold of Donetsk in the worst fighting since the cease fire was signed. Yahoo/Reuters. The shelling seems to be targeting the government held airport, which has been under siege for quite sometime. Ukraine claims that any attempt by the rebels to take any new territory would violate the terms of the cease fire. Troop movements, including a report that Russian troops have sent an armored column over the border, indicate that an offensive is possibly coming. The OSCE, a neutral organization, confirmed that the column did enter Ukraine. Russia has long denied that any of its troops are fighting in Ukraine officially. 

My Comment:
Looks like the war in Ukraine is heating up again. Like I said in a previous post this has a lot to do with the elections the rebel held east. The elections were a slap in the face to the Ukrainian government and show how determined the rebels are to form their own country. As for the airport, the rebels have been fighting for that for the entire cease fire. The article wasn't clear which side was being shelled, fog of war yet again, but the size and duration of the strikes indicate to me that one side or the other was desperate and risked losing the battle. Time will tell if it was the rebels or the Ukrainian military. 

As for Russia, they are doubling down on Ukraine. They have invested too much in the rebels to give up now. But they are paying a huge price for it. The sanctions are bad for them but what is really killing them right now is lower oil prices. I don't know enough about economics to determine if these low oil prices are natural due to market conditions or if they are due to some kind of economic warfare from the west. Either way Russia is hurting. It is truly a dangerous game for all involved. 

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