Friday, October 10, 2014

Nobody knows how bad the Ebola epidemic in Africa is, cases are more then double then what has been reported. -Vox

Workers take out a body in Sierra Leone. Vox

Health officials say that there are many more cases then the current reported 8000 cases and 4000 deaths. Vox. Vox details the process and explains how so many cases can slip through the cracks. Infections are self reported, followed up upon by workers, transport suspected Ebola cases to the hospital or bury dead bodies and then collect fluids for Ebola testing. Since the system requires self reporting and can be disrupted at any point in the process. Many people are also hiding the disease as well due to fear of the government. The lack of resources and personnel are making things extremely difficult as well. Even in the United States, contact tracing the one Ebola case has been hard. After considering all the data experts estimate that the real case number and death toll could be 2.5 times worse then reported. 

My Comment:
For the mathematically challenged out there if the cases are 2.5 times worse then reported the actual case number is 20,000 infected and 10,000 dead. Needless to say that is very bad news. I've posted before that the case number was under reported, but to actually see the numbers is disturbing. 

In addition the newest numbers were released today and on the surface they look ok. There wasn't a huge increase in cases in Liberia. But if you look at the release the WHO admits that the numbers aren't accurate due to the extreme difficulty in determining cases and deaths. In short there are too many cases to count and many of the people who are responsible for determining cases are infected or dead. The situation is horrible and I can't see it getting any better anytime soon. Even the massive military and humanitarian response will probably do nothing at this point.  

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