Sunday, October 19, 2014

Are U.S. airstrikes working in Syria? The battle for Kobani continues... LA Times.

An airstrike in Kobani. LA Times/European Pressphoto Agency. 

U.S. lead airstrikes in Kobani have helped in the battle for Kobani but heavy fighting still rages. LA Times. Just a couple of weeks ago Kobani looked totally doomed but airstrikes have stopped the ISIS offensive and brought the battle to a bloody stalemate. At least 130 airstrikes have devastated ISIS's armor, artillery and command and control capabilities, but the airstrikes have not defeated ISIS. Despite the damage, ISIS is still fighting hard and is using different tactics to fight the Syrian Kurds. Mortar strikes and suicide car bombings are just two of the new tactics ISIS is employing. They are also avoiding using their heavy weapons and are using motorcycles for resupply and are other low profile tactics to avoid airstrikes. The battle has now devolved into brutal street to street fights. The Kurds think that they can win, but their supplies are currently being held up in Turkey. The Kurds are criticizing the Turks and claim that they want the city to fall.

My Comment:
Someone is on the ground here directing these airstrikes. The Kurds have no experience in close air support and do not have the expertise necessary to call in airstrikes with this precision. Someone is on the ground here and my bet would be on U.S. special forces. That being said it seems to have had a major impact on the battle. A few weeks ago it looked like Kobani was sure to fall but now, at the very least, it will be a bloodletting for ISIS. Airstrikes have gotten rid of ISIS's major advantage in tanks, artillery and technicals (trucks with machine guns mounted on them), so now this is a fight on relatively equal ground. 

At least it would be if it wasn't for the Turks. They absolutely want Kobani to fall and for the Kurds to be wiped out. They don't want these fighters to survive and then come to Turkey and fight them. Of course if Kobani falls it's only a matter of time before ISIS goes into Turkey, but they don't care about the long term picture. 

So will the Kurds hold out? Despite the optimism in this report I still say they lose eventually. Airstrikes alone aren't enough, and without ammunition and other supplies, I can't see them winning. Their sacrifice isn't totally in vain though. They are killing a large number of ISIS fighters and destroying tons of their equipment. At some point the cost in taking Kobani will outweigh whatever gains ISIS could get there. We might be past that point already. 

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