Ukrainian troops of the "Azov" Battalion. Yahoo/Reuters.
Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels have agreed to a cease fire. Yahoo/Reuters. In addition to the cease fire, both sides have agreed to prisoner exchanges, humanitarian aid to civilians and the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the conflict area. It is unclear how long the cease fire will hold. Ukrainian president Poroshenko is offering a federalized system and the repeal of the anti-Russian language laws that contributed to the conflict. Despite the cease fire the EU went forward with additional sanctions for Russia.
My Comment:
If this cease fire leads to a peace deal it is the best thing that can happen for everyone involved. Poroshenko wisely caved to Putin's demands and if they do agree to a federal system and some autonomy for the east, then the war should be over. I'm not sure though if the rebels will accept these terms. They want independence, but I don't think that is going to happen. As for Poroshenko, he should have done this weeks ago when they were still in a strong position. Right now he know that Russia holds all the cards and that his military was about to be destroyed.
And count this among Putin's recent string of foreign policy victories. He had a very strong hand of course, but that doesn't mean he didn't play it well. He is going to get everything he wanted out of this conflict, should the cease fire hold. He gets Crimea, the Ukrainian Russian minority is protected, Ukraine will most likely stay out of the NATO camp and he is as domestically popular as he ever was. You can say a lot about whether what he did was right or wrong, but you can't fault his execution. Putin is many things, but unlike our leadership in the west he is competent.
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