A bombed out building in Donetsk. Yahoo/Reuters
NATO reports that Russia has 20,000 troops on the border of Ukraine and may be planning an invasion. Yahoo/Reuters. NATO is concerned that the Russians might use a peacekeeping or humanitarian agenda as a cover for an invasion. The number of troops has decreased from 40,000 to almost 1000 as the conflict went on, but after the downing of MH-17 more troops have been moving back in the area. Russia denies everything and claims the troops are there for exercises.
My Comment:
I don't buy this report from Reuters. Unless NATO has some specific intelligence they didn't share here, I don't see the facts on the ground matching their claims. The article said in the past Russia had 40,000 troops on the border but now they have any 20,000. I don't think even 40,000 troops would be enough for an invasion, let alone 20,000. If there were more troops in the area, then I might be concerned.
And the timing doesn't make any sense either. Putin's plan is to wait until winter so he can cut of fuel supplies. He wants to avoid an actual invasion if at all possible. Events on the ground could change his plans and I have posted before that if Donetsk and Luhansk turn into besieged hellholes then he might have to invade. It's getting closer to that but I don't think we are there yet. The humanitarian agenda would be used, NATO is 100% right about that at least.
I'll start to worry about a Russian invasion when all of the following are true:
1. Russia has 50,000 or more troops on the border
2. We get reports that those troops are moving
3. Donetsk and/or Luhansk either fall or are besieged to the point where surrender is a possibility and there is no chance of economic pressure effecting Ukraine.
Unless something really crazy happens, I just don't see an invasion happening until those three conditions are met. Until then I won't be all that worried about it.
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