Friday, July 11, 2014

The Ukraine war is heating up- Guardian

Rebels withdraw to the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukraine prepares for assault.
The Ukrainian loyalists took back the city of Slavyansk after the rebels fled, fearing encirclement. Ukrainian forces are gathering to assault the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. The loss of Slavyansk is considered to be a major defeat for the rebels.

My Comment:
I think it's fairly certain now that barring direct Russian intervention the Ukrainian rebellion is about to be crushed. Unfortunately, I don't see the Ukrainian forces as being strong enough to actually win the battle in a house to house fight in a major city. I'm predicting slow, horrible siege warfare with high causalities on all sides. Eventually Kiev should win due to numbers and equipment, but it won't be easy. I doubt that Kiev will keep it's promise not to use air strikes because this is going to be a meat grinder. And the civilians of the cities will suffer the most.

And that's the rub. I really don't think that Putin will tolerate two cities full of people getting shelled and starved into submission, so there is a chance at a great war breaking out. And even if the pro-Kiev forces win, expect a prolonged insurgency. No good will come from this.

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