Saturday, July 12, 2014

No political progress in Iraq will lead to Chaos -Yahoo/AP

Arms dealer in Baghdad, who recently doubled his prices due to high demand -AP

The UN says that "chaos" is possible if a political solution to the current deadlock isn't made. -Yahoo/AP  The Iraqi Parliament is due to pick a new prime minister, president and speaker on 7/13/14, but pessimism reigns at the UN. Iraq is falling further and further into sectarian civil war.

My Comment:
I've got some obvious news for the UN. It's already chaos. It's a sectarian civil war between Sunni and Shia Islam with the Kurds doing their own thing in the north. It's hard to imagine the situation being much worse but if and when Baghdad falls it will be. 

One person is to blame above all others. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki spent the last 6 years doing everything in his power to oppress and subvert Sunni Muslims. He arrested his political opponents, staffed the army with people that were loyal to him instead of by merit and is generally a mini-Saddam Hussein. He is certainly reaping what he has sewn but it's going to take his government and country down with him. 

As for a political solution i don't see it happening. Sunnis may dislike ISIS and are certainly scared of them but feel the alternative, working with Maliki, just isn't going to happen. The Kurds want nothing to do with Maliki either. The only hope for Iraq is for a second Sunni awakening. Back during American involvement tribal leaders, fed up with Al-Qaeda in Iraq's atrocities (forerunners to today's ISIS) and backed by a surge of U.S. troops beat back the terrorists and lead to a brief period of peace. I don't really see that happening again since the lines are so clearly drawn in sectarian lines and the chance of foreign intervention is practically nil.   

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