Shia Hezbollah volunteers. Reuters
Iraqi forces fail in offensive in Tikrit, no political solution in sight Yahoo/Reuters. Snipers and mortars drove the Iraqi armed forces out of Tikrit. They could not push ISIS out of the city, which was captured recently. Sunni, Shia and Kurds still haven't formed a government, although they have picked a prime minister.
My Comment:
It seems clear now that the Iraq army isn't able to mount serious offensives right now. And the political situation isn't getting much better. The fact that the army was beaten back by sniper fire and mortars does not bode well for the future. It's a problem of discipline, poor leadership, sectarian division and the fact that a good portion of the forces aren't professional soldiers but Shia militias. These are complex and extremely difficult problems that would take a long time to fix in even the most ideal of circumstances. That's not the case here.
Will Baghdad fall? I think there is a good chance of it. ISIS captured so many weapons and armor they can't really be considered outgunned anymore. Sure Iraq has some limited airstrike capabilities due to the U.S. Russia and Iran, but what they need are dedicated soldiers and good leadership. They don't have nearly enough time to develop that. And ISIS has none of the moral problems that the Iraqi Army has right now.
I only see three ways out for Iraq now:
1. Large scale foreign intervention. I just don't see the U.S. contributing anything other then token forces due to the war weariness of Americans. Remember that only a short while ago the American public roundly rejected a war in Syria, and they still know about all the people who died during the first combat commitment. They don't want that again, even if it renders the first invasion moot. Russia has it's on problems with Ukraine so I don't see them doing much more then selling equipment and maybe a few more "advisers" flying planes. That leaves Iran, which has the best chance out of actually doing something.
2. ISIS collapsing. It's possible. Their brutality could backfire like it did for Al-Qaeda in Iraq, the proto-ISIS. They were defeated after their various war crimes turned enough Sunni leaders against them. Right ISIS needs Sunni tribesmen and Baathist remnants to support them since the actual number of Islamic State fighters is small. Should ISIS anger these groups enough they could turn on them, and, if nothing else, buy some time for the Iraqi government.
3. Some kind of political solution that Sunnis, Shias and Kurds can all accept. At the very least Maliki has to go. This seems extremely unlikely though.
My prediction is that Baghdad falls and Iraq is split into a Shia southeast, a Kurd northeast an a Sunni Caliphate that takes up the rest of the country and incorporates some of Syria as well. I don't think that Caliphate will last long but once lost I don't see Iraq gaining back that territory anytime soon.
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